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    16/10/2023 10:56 AM  #1

    Matchman
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    A Look at Current Form

    .

    A look at current form  

    Radcliffe look unstoppable with 9 wins from 10 matches

    Warrington Rylands lost 4-0 to Radcliffe in their iopening game and haven’t lost since.

    Marine have won their last 5 and are the only team to beat Radcliffe

    Morpeth have climbed to the top half of the table after winning 3 of their last 4.

    Unpredictable FC United have done the opposite losing 3 of their last 4.

    Hyde United have won their last four but all against teams in the bottom 5.

    I thought Matlock might win the league but they’ve struggled so far and have won only 1 of their last 5.

    Since beating Ilkeston 4-1 Bradford have failed to win another game.

    Stafford Rangers have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 matches

    Ilkeston’s next opponents, Guiseley. have won their last 2 matches.




     

     

    17/10/2023 1:58 PM  #2

    Matchman
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    Re: A Look at Current Form

    .
    Despite Macclesfield being 13 points behind Radcliffe , I still think they'll make the playoffs.
    My guess is that Radcliffe, Warrington, Marine and Macclesfield will finish in the top five.
    That leaves just one play off position to be claimed. And that will probably go to Worksop.

     

    Last edited by Matchman (17/10/2023 2:56 PM)

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    17/10/2023 2:10 PM  #3

    Alex
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    Re: A Look at Current Form

    What would be more interesting is

    A, what is the average points total for the last playoff shot over the last 5 seasons.

    B, what is the average points total for the last position above the drop zone over the last 5 seasons.

    At the moment we are on 19 points. Which I think is very good, saying what pre season we had and 1st 6 games of the season.

    My total is 50 points, then I think we will be safe.

    31 points to go

     

    17/10/2023 3:50 PM  #4

    Trowell Nicky
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    Re: A Look at Current Form

    Matchman wrote:

    .
    Despite Macclesfield being 13 points behind Radcliffe , I still think they'll make the playoffs.
    My guess is that Radcliffe, Warrington, Marine and Macclesfield will finish in the top five.
    That leaves just one play off position to be claimed. And that will probably go to Worksop.

     

    As things stand, I'd agree with that prediction. Seems strange that bet365 have got us at 16/1 for the league and Worksop Town at 33/1.
     

     

    17/10/2023 6:04 PM  #5

    Matchman
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    Re: A Look at Current Form

    Alex wrote:

    What would be more interesting is

    A, what is the average points total for the last playoff shot over the last 5 seasons.

    B, what is the average points total for the last position above the drop zone over the last 5 seasons.

    At the moment we are on 19 points. Which I think is very good, saying what pre season we had and 1st 6 games of the season.

    My total is 50 points, then I think we will be safe.

    31 points to go

    It's not straight forward finding the average number of points to
    (a) get into the playoffs and
    (b) avoid relegation
    due to there being a different relegation rules and numbers of games in the last 5 completed seasons.

    As we now have a 42 match season, I've used a points per game in the seasons with more or less than 42 games to arrive art an equivalent figure for 42 games

                                     
                                                  (a)                  (b)            (a   -  b)
                                               Points            Points          Points
                                             needed to        needed      Difference
                                             get into the      to finish
                                             final playoff     5th from  
                                             position            bottom

    2022-23 (42 matches)           68                    47                  21
    2021-22 (42 matches)           71                    48                  23
    2020-21  Covid
    2019-20  Covid
    2018-19  (40 matches)          66                     41                 25
    2017-18  (46 matches)          80                     52                 28
    2016-17  (46 matches)          81                     47                 34


    If we average the above figures to equate to a 42 game season (which we currently have)
                                
    2022-23                                  68                     47                                  
    2021-22                                  71                     48                                  
    2020-21  Covid
    2019-20  Covid
    2018-19                                  70                     44                                
    2017-18                                  73                     48                                
    2016-17                                  74                     43                                


    Average points needed
    to get into playoffs
    over the last 5 completed 
    seasons based on a
    42 match season .........,,,,,,,  72 points


    Average points needed
    to finish 5th from bottom
    over the last 5 completed
    seasons based on a 
    42 match season .......................................... 46 points
                                                                                                                          .

    Another interesting stat is the diminishing difference between playoff points needed and points needed to avoid relegation.
    The difference last season (2022-23) was only 21 points. This indicates a tightening league of teams more closely matched.


    * amended to make suitable for mobile phone viewing

    Last edited by Matchman (18/10/2023 5:00 AM)

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    18/10/2023 5:40 PM  #6

    Matchman
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    Re: A Look at Current Form

    .

    Only 3 points separate Marine in 5th place from FC United in 13th place. That's how tight it is.


     

    Last edited by Matchman (18/10/2023 5:42 PM)

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